This gives Suriname the prospect of an economic acceleration similar to the one Guyana has experienced for several years. However, the challenge remains to translate future oil revenues into sustainable prosperity.

In its latest economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, the World Bank forecasts that Suriname's economy will achieve record growth in 2028. Guyana, by comparison, is expected to record growth of 15 percent that year. Suriname's outlook is closely linked to developments in the offshore oil sector, which could change the economic balance between the two neighboring countries.

A major project off Suriname's coast is ultimately expected to enable production of 220,000 barrels of oil per day. The start of production is seen as a significant boost to economic activity and could generate new revenue for the country. The projected growth rate of 21.5 percent in 2028 would represent an important milestone for Suriname. However, a high growth rate does not automatically mean improved household purchasing power, increased employment or better public services.

While Suriname is still awaiting the start of offshore oil production, Guyana has already experienced exceptional economic growth in recent years. The rapid expansion of its oil industry has increased government revenues, strengthened its external economic position and reduced public debt as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). The World Bank's regional analysis shows that the economic performance of commodity-exporting countries can vary considerably. Natural resources create opportunities, but their presence does not automatically translate into strong economic performance.

Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago experienced a significant decline in economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Suriname was unable to avoid this downturn despite relatively favorable gold prices. The recovery began as the direct effects of the pandemic subsided and international commodity prices strengthened.

Nevertheless, Suriname's economic performance lagged behind that of Guyana, where oil production provided a much stronger boost to the economy. Trinidad and Tobago is also recovering from the crisis, but the country is not experiencing the same exceptional growth rates as its Guyanese neighbor. In its analysis, the World Bank emphasizes the importance of carefully managing public investment and ensuring that government institutions have sufficient capacity to implement projects effectively.