a military base in northern Israel. The Iran-backed militant group, which has its power base in southern Lebanon, called it revenge for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Never mind that Israel says the attack did no damage. One projectile was intercepted, while others fell in open areas. 

Or that Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called it “an irresponsible and suspicious act,” and banned Hezbollah’s military activities. Israel has been poised for this moment for months. Even after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect in 2024, the Israeli military has been striking Lebanon on a near-daily basis, accusing Hezbollah of violating the agreement by rearming and rebuilding its forces. In November, Israel said it killed Hezbollah’s second most senior figure and Chief of Staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai. But those were largely individual strikes.

In the past, the US tried to prevent a wider conflict along the Israel-Lebanon border, helping to set up the first direct talks between the two countries’ civilian officials late last year. And one week ago, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi said they had “received warnings indicating that any intervention on the part of Hezbollah could prompt Israel to strike infrastructure targets.” The warning came before Israel and the US jointly struck Iran. Raggi said on social media that he hoped Hezbollah “refrains from embarking on any new adventures and spares Lebanon further destruction”.

Now Hezbollah’s decision to enter the fray and expand the conflict has given Israel’s leadership every reason it needs to dramatically intensify its strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the capital Beirut. “Hezbollah opened fire last night. We warned it. It will pay a heavy price”, said Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin at a press briefing. As of Monday morning, Lebanon’s Ministry of Health said at least 31 people had been killed and 149 injured in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon.

A day earlier, Israel announced it was calling up 100,000 reservists – “dozens of battalions, brigades, and divisions” – many of whom would be deployed to the northern border with Lebanon. The IDF still occupies five points across the border, holding them indefinitely as observation posts from which it can look into southern Lebanon. (CNN)