expected to rapidly strengthen into a strong event between July and September, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather worldwide. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, oscillating with its counterpart La Niña. The WMO classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong — the current event is projected to reach the third-highest level.

Climate scientist Alvaro Silva noted that confidence in a strong El Niño developing has increased significantly since last month. Forecasts from global climate centres consistently indicate ocean temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in key monitoring regions. The phenomenon is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many parts of the world. The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest, at around 1.55°C above pre-industrial averages. While El Niño usually peaks between November and February, resulting temperature spikes typically follow later. Silva warned that impacts will be felt through the end of the year and beyond, into 2027.

The WMO is stepping up early warning support to guide preparedness, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and health. WMO chief Celeste Saulo emphasized that such measures are vital to save lives and cushion economic and community impacts. She warned the event will intensify drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves — both on land and in the ocean. The update predicts above-average temperatures across nearly all populated land areas between 60°N and 60°S. Rainfall outlooks show above-normal precipitation in the southwestern US and below-normal levels across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia. While the WMO says there's no evidence climate change increases El Niño's frequency or intensity, it can amplify its effects by making more energy and moisture available for extreme weather. During the northern summer, El Niño's warm waters can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing them in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Peru has declared a 60-day state of emergency in 800 municipalities due to the imminent danger of heavy rains, with over 9.3 million people at very high risk from flooding and landslides. (Bssnews)