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India and Pakistan are in crisis again

INDIA - Last week's deadly militant attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, which claimed 26 civilian lives, has reignited a grim sense of déjà vu for India's security forces and diplomats.

Times of Suriname

This is familiar ground. In 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers were killed in Uri, India launched "surgical strikes" across the Line of Control – the de facto border between India and Pakistan - targeting military bases.

In 2019, the Pulwama bombing, which left 40 Indian paramilitary personnel dead, prompted airstrikes deep into Balakot - the first such action inside Pakistan since 1971 - sparking retaliatory raids and an aerial dogfight. And before that, the horrific 2008 Mumbai attacks - a 60-hour siege on hotels, a railway station, and a Jewish centre - claimed 166 lives.

Each time, India has held Pakistan-based militant groups responsible for the attacks, accusing Islamabad of tacitly supporting them - a charge Pakistan has consistently denied. Since 2016, and especially after the 2019 airstrikes, the threshold for escalation has shifted dramatically. Cross-border and aerial strikes by India have become the new norm, provoking retaliation from Pakistan. This has further intensified an already volatile situation. Once again, experts say, India finds itself walking the tightrope between escalation and restraint - a fragile balance of response and deterrence. One person who understands this recurring cycle is Ajay Bisaria, India's former high commissioner to Pakistan during the Pulwama attack, who captured its aftermath in his memoir, Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan. (BBC)

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