the US would postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Market data reviewed by the BBC shows the volume of trade spiked around fifteen minutes before a social media post by the president announcing the move. The price of oil fell sharply after the announcement, dropping 14% in a matter of minutes. Traders who bet on the unexpected move would have made money.  Some market analysts say the unusual activity opens up the possibility that the bets may have been placed with prior knowledge of the decision.

The BBC has contacted the White House for comment. A spokesman told the Financial Times that it did not "tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge". Global financial markets have been rocked by the Middle East conflict, with share prices sliding as the cost of oil and gas soared, but on several occasions hope of a potential end to the war has seen volatile movements with oil falling sharply and stock markets rising. On Saturday, Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if it did not re-open the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas normally pass, within 48 hours. Markets were closed that day, but fell sharply across Asia when they re-opened on Monday morning, while the price of oil started to climb. (BBC)